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Josh Allen, reporting from Bet Chat HQ…

How Covid-19 has turned my £10 stakes into a £981 profit

Back in July when the first coronavirus lockdown was coming to an end, I came up with a betting plan designed to make the most of the situation.

In this article I’m going to reveal what has turned out to be a highly profitable betting strategy…

It’s something that I came up with, tested live and have reaped the rewards from. It’s also something that I hope you can join in with.

Part one is the ‘Hypotheses’ – the original idea that I had and the logic behind it.

The Hypotheses

The Idea

Playing football in coronavirus conditions will result in easier to predict outcomes, creating value in sensible accumulator bets.

By sensible, I mean a standard bet to be 4-6 selections, not a Rambo style 20 team 1000/1 acca!

The Factors

Coronavirus conditions are as follows:

  • No crowds.
  • Matches crammed into a shorter space of time.
  • More substitutions allowed in certain competitions.
  • ​Bookmakers and bettors will have to react to the different conditions, resulting in more pricing errors.

The Logic

Let’s take each of the factors in turn…

  • No crowds

No crowds was almost certainly going to result in the home advantage being all but eradicated and so it’s proved, with 35% of home wins in the Premier League this season compared to 48% in 2018/19 (there were also far fewer home wins last season post lockdown compared to pre lockdown).

Note that this is an entirely LOGICAL occurrence. In the first few games of this season there was a lot of chat about loads of goals being scored, but that more than likely has nothing to do with an absence of fans. Instead, it was largely down to variance (sometimes loads of goals are scored, sometimes very few are scored – that’s just football).

With home advantage no longer much of a factor, the better team generally wins therefore, if you have a good grasp on which teams are actually good (not just those with a big reputation, like Man Utd), winners become easier to predict. 

You can also take it a step further and look at teams that this factor might have an especially strong impact on… 

Burnley, for example, have a small intimidating stadium with rowdy fans, and so their home advantage was probably bigger than most other teams. Southampton, however, actually had a better away record than home record before the first lockdown…

Since football has restarted Burnley have really struggled, while Southampton have shone.

  • Busy match schedules and more subs

This is clearly going to benefit the teams with more strength in depth, although you do also need to take into account European and cup fixtures here, especially in the second half of the season…

This is all about using your noggin’. Manchester City have a much stronger squad than Newcastle, but if they’ve had 6 matches in 3 weeks and have just returned from a trip to Russia, they have no place in an accumulator at short odds against a Newcastle side who have had a week off.

  • Pricing errors due to different conditions

As I’ve said before, facing unusual conditions is not a reason to cry and give up, but a reason to find an edge and get stuck in before the bookies cotton on!

Sure, they may have adjusted the odds on home teams to take into account the absence of a crowd, but have they done it by too much or too little? 

Personally, I’ve found that they’ve actually overcompensated in a fair few cases, with strong favourites that would have been say 8/13 with a crowd, now more like 5/6. These are teams that should be strong favourites because they’re the superior team, not because they’re at home.

The First Example

I’ll end part one with an example of a winner (part two of this series will be a full ‘warts and all’ on results, with every single one included).

The above is a classic example of what I’ve just said. The two larger priced teams were at home and would have been much lower odds with a crowd, and yet they’re both much better than their opponents (with bigger and stronger squads).

Also, in the case of European football, there is still some home advantage, as the home team doesn’t have to get on a plane and travel to another country!

All three of those selections were value prices in their own right but, put them in an acca (and use a bookie with an acca bonus like an odds boost) and you’ve got a cracking bet.

The Results

Following on from my betting strategy hypothesis, I selected a bookmaker (more on that shortly) and began placing accumulator bets in July after the Premier League restarted. 

Further down this page I've published a video scrolling through all the selections so you can see the proof but first I want to provide a detailed summary, so here goes.

Number of selections: 51

With the first bet placed on July 11th and the most recent, November 3rd, that’s a very manageable average of exactly 3 a week.

Number of winners: 9

That’s a 17.6% strike rate which may not seem like a lot but remember, these are accumulators, which have chunky odds. That brings me nicely on to…

Average odds: 24/1

Average winning odds: 13/1

It’s worth noting here that there were no huge winners that skewed the average winning odds but there were a pair of three figure odds losers that have amped up the average odds figure a little.

Average stake: £9.74

Overall profit/loss: +£981.28

So, if we take £9.74 as our point value, that means a profit of a whopping 100.75 points!

And There Were Near Misses Too...

Pretty impressive eh? 

A sustainable strike rate (the profit wasn’t down to just one or two huge winners), juicy average odds, easy to follow (3 bets a week on average) and a very tasty profit from a highly affordable stake (just shy of £10).

On top of all that, there were a number of near misses which could have made for an even more impressive profit…

And yes, I know that ‘if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle’ – that’s not the point I’m making. The point I’m making is that there was no great fortune in these results. Instead, luck pretty much balanced out, as luck tends to do.

So, to make that point, here are the near misses:

  • November 3rd, one team failed to win, acca odds were 7.63/1

That team was Norwich at home to Millwall, where they had 27 shots but the game finished 0-0.

  • October 28th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 7.17/1

Again, the team in question drew.

  • October 20th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 8.11/1

The team here was PSG at home to Man Utd. United are currently 15th in the Premier League, but somehow won this match.

  • October 4th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 9.32/1

This was the incredible Aston Villa 7 Liverpool 2 match.

  • October 4th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 16.59/1

This was a variation on the acca above and it was again the Villa Liverpool match which was the only one to let me down. I told you the overall profit made wasn’t down to luck!

  • September 22nd, one team failed to win, acca odds were 9.4/1

The team in question drew.

  • September 6th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 15.47/1
  • ​August 18th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 16.87/1
  • ​July 26th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 7.62/1
  • ​July 26th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 37.36/1
  • ​July 22nd, one team failed to win, acca odds were 21.1/1
  • ​July 16th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 6.27/1

See what I mean!

Over 100 points profit from this strategy and that despite TWELVE accumulators (ranging from 6.27/1 to 37.36/1) missing out by a single selection.

You don’t need to be either a football expert or a betting expert to see that this strategy has some serious legs.

I certainly hope that’s whet your appetite. Below I’m going to talk about the best bookie/bookies to use for this.

The Bookie(s)

The first thing to say here is that you can use any bookie for this strategy. It’s accumulators made up of win bets – even exchanges take them these days.

HOWEVER, I would strongly recommend that you use a specific bookie if you can, and here’s for why…

The BEST Place For Accumulator Betting

Chances are you’ve not heard of BetBull or, if you have, you haven’t used it yet.

They’re relatively new (although old enough to be confident they aren’t going to disappear tomorrow) and they are a ‘mobile app only’ bookmaker…

No website (not that you can place bets on anyway) and no shops.

If that rules you out of using them then scroll down for some recommended alternatives but, if you are able to download a free app onto your phone then stick with me for a minute, because this is comfortably the best bookmaker I have come across since I first discovered Betfair (the exchange, not the sportsbook!)

Here’s why…

  • As far as I’m aware they don’t ban or restrict people. Or at least, if they do, they haven’t done so to me, despite my making a lorra lorra cash from them (as I spoke about above).
  • Their win odds on the football are nearly always best price or very close to best price compared to all the major players (those bookies on Oddschecker).
  • Withdrawals are pretty much instant. The cash usually shows up in my bank account inside an hour of requesting it.
  • ​This is the biggun’… they are constantly handing out odds boosts, acca insurance, and free spins, on which any winnings go straight into your cash balance. And when I say constantly, I’m not kidding. Despite making 100 points profit from my bets with them, they still send me 20-50% odds boosts at least twice a week, almost without fail.

Here’s a notification I received yesterday for example:

And here are the important terms and conditions of the odds boost:

For our purposes that’s ideal. The max stake is fine, the min odds and selections are fine and, crucially, there are no ‘bonus’ cash or rollover stipulations.

As I say, I’ve had a huge number of these bonuses and the free spins alone have probably made me £50-100 on top of the profit stated yesterday.

Oh and one more thing… as with most bookies there’s also a welcome offer for new customers so, if you happen to be one, you can get a free bet matching the value of your first deposit, up to £50.

Here are the key terms for that offer:

  • Free bets unlocked when qualifying sports bets are placed and settled within qualifying period of 7 days. So if you deposit £50 and place a £50 bet, once it’s settled you will be credited with a £50 free bet.
  • ​The qualifying period runs for 7 days from the date of registration
  • ​All BetBull promotions are limited to one per customer per household
  • ​Any qualifying bets that are cashed out will not qualify
  • ​Minimum deposit amount is £20. Maximum free bet is £50.

Free Bet Rules

  • To use a Free Bet your selection must have odds of 1/1 (2.0) or greater. 
  • ​Free Bets can only be used on accumulators or system bets with 3 selections or more
  • ​Free bets can only be used on pre-match bets
  • ​Each free bet expires seven days after being credited. Any free bets that are not used after seven days will be removed
  • ​Free bet stakes are not included in any returns nor can be cashed out

Anyone who’s been a Bet Chat reader for a long time will know that I’m not one for promoting or praising bookies other than in a ‘we have to bet with someone, so it may as well be these’ sense, but this lot really have been excellent in the time I’ve been using them.

If you decide to follow my accumulator selections you WILL make MORE money using BetBull. 

The Best Alternatives

If you can’t use BetBull for whatever reason then my second choice would be bet365. Like BetBull they’re also usually there or thereabouts when it comes to best available odds. 

In terms of restrictions they’re fairly lenient (certainly compared to other major bookies).

Their real perk however, is that they pay out on any team that takes a two goal lead, irrespective of the final result. So if, for example, you had Tottenham as an acca selection and they went 2-0 up but ended up drawing 2-2, they would still go down as a winner, so if the rest of your teams won, the bet would win.

That means you could potentially get even better results than my own.

Aside from bet365 and BetBull, everyone else is much of a muchness with various pros and cons. If I had to pick a third choice it’d be Bet Victor.

Again, the odds are decent, they’re not too bad for restrictions and they do also offer acca insurance, with money back as a free bet if one team lets you down (minimum five selections).

That’s all for part three

Below I’ll show you a video of my BetBull account detailing every single bet I’ve placed, and I’ll explain exactly how you can start following my bets.

The Invitation

First up, I promised you video proof of my results, so here it is:

How To Follow My Bets

Once I came to the conclusion that I had a successful and sustainable strategy, I thought long and hard about the fairest way for you to join me (should you want to of course!) and I came up with something that we’ve never done before.

Here it is:

  • To join my group, which gives you selections sent by email (around 3 a week) and access to a members only Telegram group, will cost you a one off fee of just £1.
  • As this strategy – like with any higher odds strategy – has losing runs, you won’t ever pay a single penny for a losing bet. There are NO renewal payments with this.
  • What I will charge is £10 for every winning bet at odds of 4/1 or bigger. I may occasionally put out a shorter odds selection and, when I do, this will be on the house, win or lose.
  • ​The £10 will be payable two working days after the bet is settled, to give you time to withdraw any winnings.

My thinking here is essentially two-fold…

  • I’m very aware that the Covid situation is having an adverse impact on the finances of many, so I didn’t feel like a traditional subscription service was right for this. By only charging for winners, you essentially pay nothing up front and will always be in clover when you have to make a payment.
  • ​Here at the Bet Chat we pride ourselves on being fair and transparent, and what’s more fair and transparent than being paid purely based on performance!

In terms of the £10 fee I feel that, given the track record, this is very fair. £10 stakes would have made you around £1000 profit with 9 winners, so you would therefore have paid £90 for those winners and nothing for the losers. That means, after fees, you’d have still made more than £900 profit.

Furthermore, if £10 is more than you are comfortable placing on a bet, even at £5 stakes you would have made around £500 profit, which would be £410 profit after fees.

I feel like this should therefore be accessible and profitable for virtually everyone.

My Guarantee

Of course, I do realise that sometimes life gets in the way and you may be unable (or even unwilling) to place a particular bet….

Therefore, if you don’t place a bet and it wins, you can claim a full refund of the £10 fee, no questions asked. All you’d need to do is email me at the usual address.

Now, clearly trust goes two ways here. If you request refunds after every winner but also remain subscribed to the group, I may politely suggest that you are unsubscribed. However, I don’t expect that to happen – you’re a Bet Chatter, so you’re obviously a good, honest person 😉 

Feedback & Questions

As I’ve said, this is something we’ve never done before so I’m very keen to hear any feedback or questions (that’s part of why we also have the members only Telegram group, which you will receive a link to when you sign up).

I’m very much open to tweaking things should somebody present an idea that others like the sound of.

What Are You Waiting For?

By paying just £1 today, you can gain access to a strategy that has made more than 100 points profit and, what's more, you'll never pay a penny for a losing bet!

Simply fill in your details below to get your name down in time for my next big odds winner.

All the best,

Josh Allen (The Sniper)

P.S. Since I launched my Sniper accumulator service there's been huge interest with loads of profit seekers signing up.

And they’re already pretty damn pleased that they did!

That’s because our very second accumulator, a six team 15.86/1 shot, was a winner:

Here’s some of the reaction among members on our private Telegram group:

This is a betting strategy that - as you've read - already boasted a 100.75pt profit (in just four months) and 197.54% ROI even before that winner. Now the figures are even more impressive.

Oh, and a reminder… the cost of getting on the list to start receiving my accas is just £1!

Our next acca is imminent and, quite frankly, you’d be mad to miss it.

Enter your details below to get your name down in time for the next big winner.

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PLEASE NOTE: The Sniper is a subscription with an initial payment priced at £1. When one of the recommended selections is successful, MarkPro Trading Ltd will charge your card on file for the amount of £10. This payment will be taken two working days after the bet is settled and you may claim a refund for this fee if notifying us within five working days. We do not offer a money back guarantee period (this does not affect your statutory rights). You can cancel your subscription at any time. When you sign up you will also be automatically subscribed to our free Bet Chat e-letter. You may unsubscribe from this publication at any time.
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